The block rate is the biggest unproven claim on this site. Four to ten a second is a target we have set, not a number anybody has measured. It makes the first testnet harder rather than easier, because the rate has to be shown safe before the network launches instead of patched afterwards.
If the data says we cannot get there, we lower it or we wait. Those are the two honest options and they are both on the table. Launching on a target the testnet did not support, and hoping, is not a third one. You will be able to see which way it went, because the number that ends up in the genesis configuration gets published either way.
The animation above is illustrative. It shows the difference between the two rules, which is real. It does not show a measured collision rate, because there is not one yet. How often blocks genuinely arrive together depends on the block rate and on how fast they propagate, and both are on the list above.