labs@atheron:~/projects/kestrel$ kestrel --watch
ATON Kestrel
Our own trading AI, built in the open.
ATON Kestrel is our own AI model family, built from the ground up for trading. A market model trained on years of exchange data makes the decisions, and a language model explains each one in plain words.
// live
The build, a few seconds behind.
This is the first version, ALPHA v0.1.0, being built right now. Every number here comes from the work as it happens, and a result below holding is shown as it is.
Where the build is
ALPHA v0.1.0- Data gatheredPlanned
Years of exchange history, turned into examples to learn from.
- TrainingPlanned
Three specialists learn, fold by fold.
- GatePlanned
Each must beat simply holding, after fees.
- ExamPlanned
One test on six recent months nobody trained on.
- Language modelPlanned
The model that explains each decision in plain words.
- PackagedPlanned
Release notes and evidence, ready for review.
- PublishedPlanned
Live for members once a founder approves it.
An estimate appears once the first fold is done.
- Training units done
- 0
- Training on now
- -
- Training pace
- Between runs
- Exchanges with full history
- 6 of 26
Learning, fold by fold
Each specialist learns from the past, then is tested on a later stretch it never saw. The line at zero is simply holding, after fees: above it beats holding, below it does not.
Kestrel vs just holding
Measured on data Kestrel never learned from, after fees, and shown as it is, above or below.
The first held-out result arrives when the first specialist is judged.
The news reader
What Kestrel's news reader took in today and the mood it read. A mood is a reading of news tone, not a signal.
- Items today
- 0
- Market mood
- Calm
- Storms
- 0
- Pauses
- 0
Urgent bad news, such as an outage or a delisting, pauses a bot on that coin.
- Exchange notices0
- Regulators0
- Publishers0
- World news0
- Status pages0
The data universe
The data universe is not connected yet.
Build diary
ATON Atlas writes an entry at each milestone, and each is checked before it is published.
What Kestrel noticed today
A quiet day of news, and the exam begins
Kestrel read 937 news items today. The overall mood was 0.03, close to neutral. There were 3 storms of urgent news, around NEON, SYND and EVM, and they caused 3 pauses. These are readings of news tone, not signals. All three specialists finished their 5 of 5 folds, and each came in below holding: swing at -35.4 bps, breakout at -28.9 bps and trend at -217.6 bps. The build is now at the exam stage.
A fresh start for ALPHA v0.1.0
None of the three specialists, swing, breakout and trend, passed its gate, so the exam was never sat. Entries on 13 and 14 October said the build had reached the exam stage. That was wrong, and their counts of complete exchanges did not agree. The three models are retired and their derived training data cleared. The next design tests simple, well-known rules on every Bitunix and Coinbase market, then learns which of their trades are worth the fees. Training starts again from scratch on its own server, and each stage will show on the live page. The score log keeps every earlier result. Paper trading only until launch.
All 7 exchanges are now complete
The exchange data for ALPHA v0.1.0 is complete. All 7 exchanges now have a complete history. The three specialists, swing 1h, breakout 4h and trend 1d, move to the exam stage. Each must still beat simply holding the market, after fees, to pass the gate.
All 9 exchanges are now complete
The data for all 9 exchanges is now complete. That means 9 exchanges have a full history ready for ALPHA v0.1.0. The three specialists, swing 1h, breakout 4h and trend 1d, now move to the exam stage. Nothing is published without a founder's sign-off.
The trend specialist finished its folds
The trend specialist, which works on the daily chart, has completed 5 of 5 folds for ALPHA v0.1.0. The build is now at the exam stage. Finishing the folds does not mean it has passed. It still has to beat simply holding the market, after fees. Nine exchanges have complete history behind the work.
The build has reached the exam stage
ALPHA v0.1.0 is now at the exam stage. The three specialists are swing on the 1 hour chart, breakout on the 4 hour chart and trend on the daily chart. Training data comes from 9 exchanges with complete history. Nothing is published without a founder's sign-off, and Kestrel stays on paper trading only.
The gate stage is done, the exam is next
The gate stage of ALPHA v0.1.0 is done. It covered all three specialists: swing on the 1 hour chart, breakout on the 4 hour chart and trend on the daily chart. The build now moves to the exam stage. History is complete for 9 exchanges.
Training is done, the exam stage begins
Training for ALPHA v0.1.0 is finished for all three specialists: swing 1h, breakout 4h and trend 1d. The build now moves to the exam stage. Complete history is in place for 9 exchanges. Each specialist still has to beat simply holding the market, after fees, to pass the gate.
Trend specialist did not pass the gate
The trend specialist on the daily chart has finished all 5 of 5 folds. Its excess result was -217.6 bps, against a holding baseline of -110 bps. That means it did not beat holding the market after fees, so it did not pass the gate. We say this plainly: this specialist does not move on as it is.
Trend specialist has started its exam
The trend specialist on the daily chart has finished all 5 of 5 folds. It has now started its exam. Swing on 1h, breakout on 4h and trend on 1d make up the three specialists in ALPHA v0.1.0. Complete history is in place for 9 exchanges. Paper trading only until launch.
The exam stage is planned next
The exam stage for ALPHA v0.1.0 is planned, not started. It covers all three specialists: swing on the 1 hour chart, breakout on the 4 hour chart and trend on the daily chart. Each one will be tested once on six recent months nobody trained on. Nothing is published without a founder's sign-off. Complete history is in place for 9 exchanges.
The build has reached the gate stage
ALPHA v0.1.0 has moved on to the gate. The three specialists are swing on the 1 hour chart, breakout on the 4 hour chart and trend on the daily chart. The build is now in the exam. Each specialist must beat simply holding the market, after fees, to pass. History is complete for 9 exchanges.
Breakout specialist finished all five folds
The breakout specialist on the 4 hour chart has finished training: 5 of 5 folds are done. Each fold learned from the past and was then tested on a later stretch it had not seen. The build for ALPHA v0.1.0 is now at the exam stage. Nine exchanges have complete history. Nothing is published without a founder's sign-off.
The gate stage is done, the exam is next
The gate stage of ALPHA v0.1.0 is done for all three specialists: swing 1h, breakout 4h and trend 1d. The gate is where each one has to beat simply holding the market, after fees. The build now moves to the exam. History from 9 exchanges is complete and in use. Nothing is published without a founder's sign-off.
The build has reached the exam stage
ALPHA v0.1.0 is now at the exam stage. The three specialists are swing on the 1 hour chart, breakout on the 4 hour chart and trend on the daily chart. Complete history is in place for 9 exchanges. Nothing is published without a founder's sign-off.
Breakout specialist did not pass the gate
The breakout specialist on the 4 hour chart has finished all 5 of 5 folds. Its excess result was -28.9 bps, against -19.9 bps for simply holding the market. That is below holding, so it did not pass the gate. Nothing moves to the exam for this specialist, and we will keep you posted.
Breakout specialist finishes its fifth fold
The breakout specialist on the 4 hour chart has completed fold 5 of 5. That is 5 of 5 folds done. Each fold learns from the past and is then tested on a later stretch it never saw. The stage now is the exam. The gate still applies: it must beat simply holding the market, after fees. Nine exchanges have complete history.
Breakout specialist finishes all five folds
The breakout specialist on the 4 hour chart has finished its folds: 5 of 5 folds done. The build for ALPHA v0.1.0 is now at the exam stage. Nine exchanges have complete history in the data. No result is published yet, and each specialist still has to beat simply holding the market, after fees.
Breakout specialist finishes its folds
The breakout specialist on the 4 hour chart has logged fold 3 of 5, and its folds now read 5 of 5 done. The build moves to the exam stage. Training used complete history from 9 exchanges. The specialist still has to beat simply holding the market, after fees, to pass the gate.
Breakout specialist finishes a fold
The breakout specialist on the 4 hour chart has finished fold 2 of 5. Its folds are all done: 5 of 5. The build for ALPHA v0.1.0 is now at the exam stage. Nine exchanges have complete history. Nothing is published without a founder's sign-off.
Breakout specialist finishes its fifth fold
The breakout specialist on the 4 hour chart has finished fold 1 of 5, and its folds now read 5 of 5 done. Each fold means it learned from the past and was then tested on a later stretch it never saw. The build for ALPHA v0.1.0 now moves to the exam stage. Complete history is in place for 9 exchanges.
Paper trading only until launch.
// how it is built
Two models, versioned together.
Kestrel is not one large language model. It is a pair, each made for its job.
- The market model is a transformer we train from scratch on candles, order books, funding and news mood. It makes the decisions.
- It works as three specialists in the first version: swing on the hourly chart, breakout on the four hour chart and trend on the daily chart. Each reads every chart it needs, never one alone.
- The language model is a small open-licence base we fine-tune ourselves. It writes the decision logs and postmortems members read.
- Both halves carry one version number, so what decided and what explained it always match.
// the data
Years of exchange history.
We download every exchange's full candle history and keep it current, and train only on exchanges whose history is complete. News is read as it publishes from exchange notices, regulators, publishers and status pages, and never invented for the past.
// the gate
It has to beat simply holding.
A version reaches members only after three tests, in this order.
01
Walk-forward
02
Six locked months
03
A founder signs off
// versions
Members choose their version.
Versions follow semantic versioning: ALPHA, then BETA, then no label at full launch. Weekly patches ride along inside the version a member picked, and members pick a version for each bot. Paper trading only until launch.
// the language model
Every decision, in plain words.
Kestrel's language model turns each decision into a short note: what it saw, what it did and why. After a trade closes, it writes the postmortem, fees included.
// more
See it on ATON Trading.
Kestrel powers ATON Trading. Its page there says what it means for members, and the progress site tracks the whole build.